Heliogenic Climate Change

“Abstract: A continuous data set of Greenland Ice Sheet altimeter height from European Remote Sensing satellites (ERS-1 and ERS-2), 1992 to 2003, has been analyzed. An increase of 6.4 T 0.2 centimeters per year (cm/year) is found in the vast interior areas above 1500 meters, in contrast to previous reports of highelevation balance. Below 1500 meters, the elevation-change rate is –2.0 T 0.9 cm/year, in qualitative agreement with reported thinning in the ice-sheet margins.  Averaged over the study area, the increase is 5.4 T 0.2 cm/year, or È60 cm over 11 years, or È54 cm when corrected for isostatic uplift. Winter elevation changes are shown to be linked to the North Atlantic Oscillation.”  “Recent Ice-Sheet Growth in the Interior of Greenland“  h/t The Hockey Schtick

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“[S]cientists at the University of Miami say Greenland’s ice is melting so quickly that the land underneath is rising at an accelerated pace.  …

“It’s been known for several years that climate change is contributing to the melting of Greenland’s ice sheet,” Dixon says. “What’s surprising, and a bit worrisome, is that the ice is melting so fast that we can actually see the land uplift in response,” he says. “Even more surprising, the rise seems to be accelerating, implying that melting is accelerating.”

Dixon and his collaborators share their findings in a new study titled “Accelerating uplift in the North Atlantic region as an indicator of ice loss.”  The paper is now available as an advanced online publication, by Nature Geoscience.  …

Melting of Greenland’s ice contributes to global sea level rise. If the acceleration of uplift and the implied acceleration of melting continue, Greenland could soon become the largest contributor to global sea level rise, explains Yan Jiang, Ph.D. candidate at the University of Miami RSMAS and co-author of the study.

“Greenland’s ice melt is very important because it has a big impact on global sea level rise,” Jiang says. “We hope that our work reaches the general public and that this information is considered by policy makers.”"  “Greenland Rapidly Rising as Ice Melt Continues“

New Moore Island and Lohachara Island are sediment islands in the Ganges-Brahmaputra delta.  New Moore “emerged in the Bay of Bengal in the aftermath of the Bhola cyclone in 1970″ (from Wikipedia).  Such islands are created and destroyed by changing currents and sediment load in the river delta.  The delta as a whole is subsiding.  Sea level rise has nothing to do with it.  Now read the alarmist nonsense below from AP claiming the island is a “rock island” (NOT!) that was “submerged” by an “alarming increase” in sea level (NOT!) caused by “global warming”.  Even more embarrassing than the ignorant journo is the quoted professor, who one hopes knows better (if not then it’s even worse):

“For nearly 30 years, India and Bangladesh have argued over control of a tiny rock island in the Bay of Bengal. Now rising sea levels have resolved the dispute for them: the island’s gone.

New Moore Island in the Sunderbans has been completely submerged, said oceanographer Sugata Hazra, a professor at Jadavpur University in Calcutta. Its disappearance has been confirmed by satellite imagery and sea patrols, he said.

“What these two countries could not achieve from years of talking, has been resolved by global warming,” said Hazra.

Scientists at the School of Oceanographic Studies at the university have noted an alarming increase in the rate at which sea levels have risen over the past decade in the Bay of Bengal.  …

Another nearby island, Lohachara, was submerged in 1996, forcing its inhabitants to move to the mainland, while almost half the land of Ghoramara island was underwater, he said. At least 10 other islands in the area were at risk as well, Hazra said.

“We will have ever larger numbers of people displaced from the Sunderbans as more island areas come under water,” he said.

Bangladesh, a low-lying delta nation of 150 million people, is one of the countries worst-affected by global warming. Officials estimate 18 percent of Bangladesh’s coastal area will be underwater and 20 million people will be displaced if sea levels rise 1 meter (3.3 feet) by 2050 as projected by some climate models.”  “Disputed isle in Bay of Bengal disappears into sea“

Image from:  “Global sea level decrease 2004-2009“

“A leading scientist has revealed that Europe could be just five years away from the start of a new Ice Age.  …

[R]enowned physicist Vladimir Paar says most of central Europe will soon be covered in ice.  …

Professor Paar, from Croatia’s Zagreb University, has spent decades analysing previous ice ages in Europe and what caused them.  …

“Previous ice ages lasted about 70,000 years. That’s a fact and the new ice age can’t be avoided.  …

“This could happen in five, 10, 50 or 100 years, or even later. We can’t predict it precisely, but it will come,” he added.

And the professor said that scientists think global warming is simply a natural part of the planet.

“What I mean is that global warming is natural. Some 130,000 years ago the earth’s temperature was the same as now, the level of CO2 was almost the same and the level of the sea was four metres higher.  …  ,” he said.

And he added: “The reality is that mankind needs to start preparing for the ice age. We are at the end of the global warming period. The ice age is to follow.  … [W]e do not know precisely when it could start – but soon.”"  “Croat scientist warns ice age could start in five years“  h/t Prison Planet

Three to 5 degrees warmer and nothing happened to the planet, no “runaway” warming, no tipping point, nada, and CO2 had nothing to do with it:

“Around 125,000 years ago, global warming drove sea levels to surge by more than 20 feet.

Sea levels were likely eight meters higher around 125,000 years ago when polar temperatures were 3-5 degrees Celsius (5.4-9 degrees Fahrenheit) warmer, says a new study published Wednesday …

“We find a 95 percent probability that global sea level peaked at least 6.6 meters (nearly 22 feet) higher than today during the last interglacial,” the study said.

“It is likely to have exceeded 8.0 meters (around 26 feet) but is unlikely to have exceeded 9.4 meters (nearly 31 feet),” it said. …

The researchers also calculated that during the last interglacial period the average sea level rose six to nine millimeters a year compared to around two millimeters a year during the 20th century.” “Sea Levels Spiked With Ancient Warming Event“

“John P. Holdren, director of the White House Office of Science and Technology Policy and President Barack Obama’s top science adviser, told Congress last week that the Earth could be approaching a series of “tipping points” that could drastically alter the climate and Earth’s natural systems and cause the sea level to rise dramatically.” “Obama’s Top Science Adviser to Congress: Earth Could Be Reaching Global Warming ‘Tipping Point’ That Would Be Followed by a Dramatic Rise in Sea Level“
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“A map of how California will be affected by climate change in the future was unveiled yesterday by state governor Arnold Schwarzenegger.

The map, which demonstrates the devastating effects of global warming in just a century, shows how San Francisco Airport would be completely underwater if sea levels were to rise by 150cm (60in) [5 feet!].

The coastline on the map was also coloured, highlighting how nearly half a million Californians are at risk from rising sea levels. …

‘Within a century, Treasure Island, this place where we are right now, could be totally under water,’ the governor said. …

Mr Schwarzenegger explained how $2.5 trillion of property and assets were still at threat from climate change.” “Arnold Schwarzenegger unveils dramatic climate change map which shows flooded San Francisco of the future“
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“Ocean acidification could cause fish to become “fatally attracted” to their predators, according to scientists.

A team studying the effects of acidification – caused by dissolved CO2 – on ocean reefs found that it leaves fish unable to “smell danger”.

Young clownfish that were reared in the acidified water became attracted to rather than repelled by the chemical signals released by predatory fish.” “Acid oceans leave fish at more risk from predators“

“Melting of the Arctic sea ice due to global warming is diluting surface waters and this is endangering some species of shellfish which need minerals in the water to form their shells and skeletons, scientists have found.

In a paper published in Science, they warned that this has serious implications for ecosystems in the Arctic.

“Organisms that are likely to be affected are from the family of pteropods, also mussels and clams on the sea floor,” said Fiona McLaughlin, research scientist at Canada’s Institute of Ocean Sciences’s department of fisheries and oceans. …

“It puts the food chain at risk. These organisms are a food source for fish that are a food source for seals and bears. The food chain in the Arctic is quite a short one, so it’s quite vulnerable,” she told Reuters by telephone.” “Melting Sea Ice Dilutes Water, Endangers Sea Life“

“Global warming is happening faster than expected and at worst could raise sea levels by up to 2 meters (6-1/2 ft) by 2100, a group of scientists said on Tuesday in a warning to next month’s U.N. climate summit in Copenhagen.

In what they called a “Copenhagen Diagnosis,” updating findings in a broader 2007 U.N. climate report, 26 experts urged action to cap rising world greenhouse gas emissions by 2015 or 2020 to avoid the worst impacts of climate change.

“Climate change is accelerating beyond expectations,” a joint statement said …” “Climate Change Quickens, Seas Feared Up 2 meters“

“Since the 1997 international accord to fight global warming, climate change has worsened and accelerated — beyond some of the grimmest of warnings made back then.

As the world has talked for a dozen years about what to do next, new ship passages opened through the once frozen summer sea ice of the Arctic. In Greenland and Antarctica, ice sheets have lost trillions of tons of ice. Mountain glaciers in Europe, South America, Asia and Africa are shrinking faster than before. …

Even the gloomiest climate models back in the 1990s didn’t forecast results quite this bad so fast.

“The latest science is telling us we are in more trouble than we thought,” Janos Pasztor, climate adviser to UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon.” “Warming’s Impacts Sped up, Worsened Since Kyoto“

“The effects of climate change have driven women in communities in coastal areas in poor countries like the Philippines into dangerous work, and sometimes even the flesh trade, a United Nations official said.

Suneeta Mukherjee, country representative of the United Nations Food Population Fund (UNFPA), said women in the Philippines are the most vulnerable to the effects of climate change in the country.

“Climate change could reduce income from farming and fishing, possibly driving some women into sex work and thereby increase HIV infection,” Mukherjee said during the Wednesday launch of the UNFPA annual State of World Population Report in Pasay City.” “‘Climate change pushes poor women to prostitution, dangerous work’“
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“A new study of Antarctica’s past climate reveals that temperatures during the warm periods between ice ages (interglacials) may have been higher than previously thought. The latest analysis of ice core records suggests that Antarctic temperatures may have been up to 6°C warmer than the present day. …

During the last warm period, about 125,000 years ago, sea level was around 5 metres higher than today.” “Mysteriously warm times in Antarctica“
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Expect more and more of these alarmist “news” stories as Dopenhagen approaches (sea level has been rising at a fairly constant long-term rate of only 2 to 4 inches per century since the Little Ice Age):

“Geologists say more than 70 percent of Kauai’s beaches are eroding while Oahu has lost a quarter of its sandy shoreline. They warn the problem is only likely to get significantly worse in coming decades as global warming causes sea levels to rise more rapidly. …

Chip Fletcher, a University of Hawaii geology professor, says scientists in Hawaii haven’t yet observed an accelerated rate of sea level rise due to global warming. …

But a more rapid rise in sea levels, caused by global warming, is expected [by climate models and alarmists] to contribute to erosion in Hawaii within decades. In 100 years, sea levels are likely to be at least 1 meter, or 3.3 feet, higher than they are now, pushing the ocean inland along coastal areas.” “Hawaii’s Famed White Sandy Beaches Are Shrinking“

“[P]laintiffs’ lawyers may be a gloating a bit, after a favorable ruling Friday from the Fifth Circuit in New Orleans, which is regarded as one of the more conservative circuit courts in the country. Here’s a link to the ruling.

The suit was brought by landowners in Mississippi, who claim that oil and coal companies emitted greenhouse gasses that contributed to global warming that, in turn, caused a rise in sea levels, adding to Hurricane Katrina’s ferocity. …

For a nice overview of the ruling, and its significance in the climate change battle, check out this blog post by J. Russell Jackson, a Skadden Arps partner who specializes in mass tort litigation. The post likens the Katrina plaintiffs’ claims, which set out a chain of causation, to the litigation equivalent of “Six Degrees of Kevin Bacon.”

The central question before the Fifth Circuit was whether the plaintiffs had standing, or whether they could demonstrate that their injuries were “fairly traceable” to the defendant’s actions. The defendants predictably assert that the link is “too attenuated.”

But the Fifth Circuit held that at this preliminary stage in the litigation, the plaintiffs had sufficiently detailed their claims to earn a day in court.

In so holding, the court notably quoted a recent Supreme Court opinion that “accepted as plausible the link between man-made greenhouse gas emissions and global warming” along with the fact that “rising ocean temperatures may contribute to the ferocity of hurricanes.”

So what is the broader significance of the ruling? We checked in with Jackson for his take.

At a minimum, he says, the ruling will invite more climate-change litigation in the future.” “Hurricane Katrina Victims Have Standing To Sue Over Global Warming” h/t Environmental Capital. Prior insane Circuit Court ruling here. Ultimate insane Supreme Court ruling here.

Long term sea level has been rising at the rate of 2 to 4 inches per century, but has actually declined the last four years, yet AP gives us this “news” story:

“This city [Shanghai] of 20 million rose from the sea and grew into a modern showcase, with skyscrapers piercing the clouds, atop tidal flats fed by the mighty Yangtze River.

Now Shanghai‘s future depends on finding ways to prevent the same waters from reclaiming it.

Global warming and melting glaciers and polar ice sheets are raising sea levels worldwide, leaving tens of millions of people in coastal areas and on low-lying islands vulnerable to flooding and other weather-related catastrophes.

Shanghai, altitude roughly 3 meters (10 feet) above sea level, is among dozens of great world cities — including London, Miami, New York, New Orleans, Mumbai, Cairo, Amsterdam and Tokyo — threatened by sea levels that now are rising twice as fast as projected just a few years ago, expanding from warmth and meltwater.” “Rising seas threaten Shanghai, other major cities“

“Putting all the best estimates together, here is a view of the Temperatures, CO2 and Sea Level throughout the past 526 to 570 million years.” “Searching the paleoclimate record for estimated correlations: temperature, CO2 and sea level“
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“Maldives government ministers are taking scuba lessons and learning underwater signs in preparation for an unprecedented Cabinet meeting at the bottom of the ocean intended to highlight the threat global warming poses to the low-lying nation. …

President Mohammed Nasheed … fears that rising ocean levels could swamp this Indian Ocean archipelago within a century. …

Nasheed will chair a meeting of his 14 Cabinet ministers about 20 feet (six meters) underwater on Oct. 17, said Aminath Shauna, an official from the president’s office.

”The intention is to draw the attention of the world leaders to the issue of global warming and highlight how serious are the threats faced by Maldives as a result,” she said.” “Maldives to Hold Cabinet Meeting Underwater“

“(CNN) — There is one holiday destination that should shake the faith of even the most vehement climate change skeptic: the Carteret Islands, part of Papua New Guinea, located northeast of Bougainville.

The palm trees sway gently under a balmy sun, the beaches are perfect, and stretched out as far as the eye can see is the wide blue of the Pacific Ocean.

The only problem with this idyllic scene is that the water is getting closer; slowly but surely, as global warming bites and sea levels rise, the islands are being swallowed up, leaving the few hundred inhabitants pondering an uncertain future.” “Drowning islands warn of future perils for ‘environmental refugees’“

However, as pointed out by the Junkman, global warming (which isn’t happening) has nothing to do with it:

“Guess what? Relative sea levels are rising around these islands but this is not because the sea is getting taller, nor does it have anything to do with greenhouse gas or global temperature. The Carteret Islands are sinking due to tectonic activity and associated volcanism because the Pacific Plate is sliding into the Bismarck and Solomon Plates, some of the islands in the associated Duke of York group are sinking 30 centimetres (11.8 inches) a year.” JunkScience, March 17

“California’s farms and cities may be left high and dry by prolonged drought, but climate change is expected to leave much of the state’s fabled shoreline awash in excess seawater before too long.

Nearly 500,000 people and $100 billion worth of property in coastal California are at risk of severe flooding from rising sea levels this century unless new safeguards are put in place, researchers reported on Wednesday.

With global warming expected to lift ocean levels along the California shore by 1 to 1.4 meters (1 to 1.4 yards) before the year 2100, large tracts of the picturesque Pacific coast also will be lost to accelerated erosion, their study found.

The report suggests that the heightened flood risk could be minimized by investing about $14 billion in a system of newly built or upgraded sea walls, levees and offshore breakwaters to reinforce some 1,100 miles of coast.

But such coastal “armoring” structures come with their own cost, the loss of beaches.

The state-funded report from the Pacific Institute, an environmental think tank, marks the first sweeping assessment of how California’s entire 2,000-mile shoreline, including San Francisco Bay, and the millions who live along it may be affected by higher sea levels.” “Sea-Level Rise Poses New Flood Risk To California“

“A team of researchers are warning that global warming is accelerating faster than previously forecasted by UN experts two years ago.

Sea levels this century may rise several times higher than predictions made in 2007, research presented March 10 at the International Scientific Congress on climate change in Copenhagen shows.” “Scientist Say Sea Levels Increasing Dangerously Fast“

“Global warming is accelerating faster”??? It’s not accelerating faster, it’s not even accelerating, it’s not even increasing, we’ve had a decade of cooling. “Sea levels this century may rise several times higher than predictions [climate model output] made in 2007?”??? Sea level has leveled off or decreased since 2006 (see graph). Journos these days just print whatever alarmists say to them.
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“Prehistoric hand axes discovered in sand and gravel dredged from the North Sea by Hanson Aggregates Marine, have won the Best Archaeological Discovery Award at the prestigious British Archaeology Awards.

Twenty eight flint hand-axes, which may be more than 100,000-years-old, were discovered in marine sand and gravel …

The axes show that deep in the Ice Age, mammoth hunters roamed across land that is now submerged beneath the sea. … Phil Harding of Wessex Archaeology and Channel 4’s Time Team programme is an expert on the Ice Age. He said: “These finds are massively important. In the Ice Age the cold conditions meant that water was locked up in the ice caps. The sea level was lower then, so in some places what is now the seabed was dry land. The hand-axes would have been used by hunters in butchering the carcasses of animals like mammoths.” …

[T]he gravel came from a licensed marine dredging area in English waters known as Area 240 – some 13km off Great Yarmouth lying in water depths of about 25m.” “Axe handles dredged from North Sea win archaeology award“
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This AGW model-derived alarmism from the International Polar Year — you see, there’s this Sword of Damocles hanging over our heads:

“As predicted by all IPCC models, Arctic sea ice will most likely disappear during summers in the near future. However, it seems like this is going to happen much sooner than models predicted, as pointed out by recent observations and data reanalysis undertaken during IPY and the Damocles Integrated Project. …

This raises a critical set of issues, with many important implications potentially able to speed up melting of the Greenland ice sheet, accelerating the rise in sea levels and slowing down the world ocean conveyor belt (THC). That would also have a lot of consequences on the ocean carbon sink (Bates et al. 2006) and ocean acidification. Permafrost melting could also accelerate during rapid Arctic sea-ice loss due to an amplification of Arctic land warming 3.5 times greater than secular 21st century climate trends, as pointed out recently by Lawrence et al. (2008). This permafrost evolution would have important consequences and strong impacts on large carbon reservoirs and methane releases, either in the ocean and/or on land.” “Arctic sea ice will probably not recover“

“The reason why the Earth doesn’t respond more rapidly to changes in insolation is due to the retained heat in the oceans, which smoothes the whole process over thousands of years. Over the short term, the oceans are very responsive to changes in solar activity. Figure 5 shows the very strong correlation between the annual rate of sea level rise and solar cycles over the 20^th century. The sea level rise of the 20^th century can largely be attributed to a more active Sun relative to the 19^th century. About 70% of the sea level rise of the 20^th century was due to thermal expansion of the oceans, with the rest due to melting glaciers.” “Ice Ages and sea level“
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