Heliogenic Climate Change

Maybe that imaginary AGW “warm air” that “holds more moisture” and “leads to more snowfall” is doing this to Lake Eire:

[Lake Eire] is about 90 to 95 percent ice-covered, and more cold temperatures forecast for the next week or so could freeze the entire lake, National Weather Service meteorologists in Cleveland said.

“We’re thinking it probably will ice over the rest of the way,” said weather service meteorologist Karen Oudeman.  …

The lake hasn’t completely frozen over since the winter of 1995-96 … , said George Leshkevich, a scientist with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory in Ann Arbor, Mich.  “Lake Erie could freeze over entirely for first time in years“

“A leading scientist has revealed that Europe could be just five years away from the start of a new Ice Age.  …

[R]enowned physicist Vladimir Paar says most of central Europe will soon be covered in ice.  …

Professor Paar, from Croatia’s Zagreb University, has spent decades analysing previous ice ages in Europe and what caused them.  …

“Previous ice ages lasted about 70,000 years. That’s a fact and the new ice age can’t be avoided.  …

“This could happen in five, 10, 50 or 100 years, or even later. We can’t predict it precisely, but it will come,” he added.

And the professor said that scientists think global warming is simply a natural part of the planet.

“What I mean is that global warming is natural. Some 130,000 years ago the earth’s temperature was the same as now, the level of CO2 was almost the same and the level of the sea was four metres higher.  …  ,” he said.

And he added: “The reality is that mankind needs to start preparing for the ice age. We are at the end of the global warming period. The ice age is to follow.  … [W]e do not know precisely when it could start – but soon.”"  “Croat scientist warns ice age could start in five years“  h/t Prison Planet

“[E]ven [assumed AGW] warming will not stave off the eventual return of huge glaciers, because ice ages last for millennia and fossil fuels will not.In about 300 years, all available fossil fuels may well have been consumed.Over the following centuries, excess carbon dioxide will naturally dissolve into the oceans or get trapped by the formation of carbonate minerals. Such processes won’t be offset by the industrial emissions we see today, and atmospheric carbon dioxide will slowly decline toward preindustrial levels. In about 2,000 years, when the types of planetary motions that can induce polar cooling start to coincide again, the current warming trend will be a distant memory.” “Global Warming vs. the Next Ice Age” h/t FuturePundit
-

“

As of the end of October, the cumulative number of spotless days (days without sunspots) in the transition into solar cycle 24 now stands at 745. The transitions into Solar Cycles 16-23, referred to as “recent solar cycles” (years 1923 to ~2008), averaged 362 cumulative spotless days (with a range from 227 to 568 spotless days). Since the current transition now exceeds 568 spotless days, it is very clear that the sun has undergone a state change. The solar “Grand Maxima” state that has persisted during most of the 20th century has come to an abrupt end. The “old solar cycles” (SC 10-15, years 1856 to 1923) averaged 797 spotless days, over twice that of the “recent solar cycles”. Those solar cycle minimums ranged from 406 – 1028 spotless days. If this solar minimum ends soon then the upcoming solar cycle may be similar to these “old solar cycles”.

So far the sun continues to be fairly quiet. This solar minimum acts like the Energizer bunny. It just keeps going, and going, and going.

The Average Magnetic Planetary Index (Ap index) is a proxy measurement for the intensity of solar magnetic activity as it alters the geomagnetic field on Earth. It has been referred to as the common yardstick for solar magnetic activity. An Ap index of “4″ was the lowest recorded monthly value since measurements began in January 1932.

Back in January 2009, David Archibald predicted the Ap index would hit a low in October 2009 with a value of “3”. Analysis from past solar cycles shows that the Ap index generally reaches its lowest value approximately a year after the solar sunspot minimum. So the question is how well did he do.

The Ap Index for last month, October, was “2″ [correction: "3"]. That is really close in my book. The Ap index had been hovering near rock bottom for 11 months now. Beginning in November 2008, there have been 8 monthly readings of “4″ along with 3 monthly readings of “5″. But this month the value broke through the glass ceiling and spawned the lowest AP monthly index value in the past 77 years. So with this transition into solar cycle 24, all the AP monthly records have been broken. The lowest single month value, two consecutive month value, three consecutive month value, etc. All of those records have fallen, swept away in this solar state change.

So what does this all mean? Well, the sun’s interplanetary magnetic field has fallen to around 4 nT (nano Tesla) from a typical value of 6 to 8 nT. The solar winds pressure is down to 50 year lows. And the heliospheric current sheet is flattening. All these changes allow high-energy galactic cosmic rays to penetrate deeper into our solar system. In 2009, cosmic ray intensities have increased 19% beyond anything we’ve seen in the past 50 years, when satellite measurements began. Greater numbers of galactic cosmic rays driving deep into our atmosphere cause greater cloud formation (through ionization) which then results in decreasing surface temperature on Earth. This is because low level clouds reflect sunlight back into space. This is why Northern and Southern hemispheres have experienced unusually cold winters during the past couple years. The influence of the sun’s magnetic field is a force to be reckoned with in natural climate change.

The sun exhibits great variability in the strength of each solar cycle. This variability ranges from extremely quiet “Grand Minima” such as the Maunder Minimum to a very active “Grand Maxima” such as the enhanced activity observed during most of the 20th century. A solar Grand Minima is defined as a period when the (smoothed) sunspot number is less than 15 during at least two consecutive decades. The sun spends about 17 percent of the time in a Grand Minima state. In the past, these periods caused great hardship to humanity and significant loss of life.

Solar Grand Minima events correspond to periods of dramatic natural global cooling. The Maunder Minimum (about 1645-1715 A.D.) and Spörer Minimum (about 1420-1570 A.D.) are two examples of recent “Grand Minima” events and each period has been referred to as a Little Ice Age. During the “Grand Minima” galactic cosmic ray fluxes were at least 200% to 300% higher than anything measured to date.

So each morning I turn on my computer and check to see how the sun is doing. Most days I am still greeted with the message “The sun is blank – no sunspots.”

James A. Marusek” From CCNet 3 November
-

“According to sensors on NASA’s ACE (Advanced Composition Explorer) spacecraft, galactic cosmic rays have just hit a Space Age high.

“In 2009, cosmic ray intensities have increased 19% beyond anything we’ve seen in the past 50 years,” says Richard Mewaldt of Caltech. …

The cause of the surge is solar minimum, a deep lull in solar activity that began around 2007 and continues today. Researchers have long known that cosmic rays go up when solar activity goes down. Right now solar activity is as weak as it has been in modern times, setting the stage for what Mewaldt calls “a perfect storm of cosmic rays.”

“We’re experiencing the deepest solar minimum in nearly a century,” says Dean Pesnell of the Goddard Space Flight Center, “so it is no surprise that cosmic rays are at record levels for the Space Age.” …

“At times of low solar activity, this natural shielding [by the Sun's magnetic field] is weakened, and more cosmic rays are able to reach the inner solar system,” explains Pesnell.

Mewaldt lists three aspects of the current solar minimum that are combining to create the perfect storm:

1. The sun’s magnetic field is weak. “There has been a sharp decline in the sun’s interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) down to only 4 nanoTesla (nT) from typical values of 6 to 8 nT,” he says. “This record-low IMF undoubtedly contributes to the record-high cosmic ray fluxes.”

2. The solar wind is flagging. “Measurements by the Ulysses spacecraft show that solar wind pressure is at a 50-year low,” he continues, “so the magnetic bubble that protects the solar system is not being inflated as much as usual.” A smaller bubble gives cosmic rays a shorter-shot into the solar system. Once a cosmic ray enters the solar system, it must “swim upstream” against the solar wind. Solar wind speeds have dropped to very low levels in 2008 and 2009, making it easier than usual for a cosmic ray to proceed.
3. The current sheet is flattening. Imagine the sun wearing a ballerina’s skirt as wide as the entire solar system with an electrical current flowing along the wavy folds. That is the “heliospheric current sheet,” a vast transition zone where the polarity of the sun’s magnetic field changes from plus (north) to minus (south). The current sheet is important because cosmic rays tend to be guided by its folds. Lately, the current sheet has been flattening itself out, allowing cosmic rays more direct access to the inner solar system.

“If the flattening continues as it has in previous solar minima, we could see cosmic ray fluxes jump all the way to 30% above previous Space Age highs,” predicts Mewaldt. …

Hundreds of years ago [the Little Ice Age], cosmic ray fluxes were at least 200% higher than they are now. Researchers know this because when cosmic rays hit the atmosphere, they produce an isotope of beryllium, 10Be, which is preserved in polar ice.” “Cosmic Rays Hit Space Age High“
-

“A team of researchers says it has largely put to rest a long debate on the underlying mechanism that has caused periodic ice ages on Earth for the past 2.5 million years – they are ultimately linked to slight shifts in solar radiation caused by predictable changes in Earth’s rotation and axis.

In a publication to be released Friday in the journal Science, researchers from Oregon State University and other institutions conclude that the known wobbles in Earth’s rotation caused global ice levels to reach their peak about 26,000 years ago, stabilize for 7,000 years and then begin melting 19,000 years ago, eventually bringing to an end the last ice age.

The melting was first caused by more solar radiation, not changes in carbon dioxide levels or ocean temperatures, as some scientists have suggested in recent years.

“Solar radiation was the trigger that started the ice melting, that’s now pretty certain,” said Peter Clark, a professor of geosciences at OSU. “There were also changes in atmospheric carbon dioxide levels and ocean circulation, but those happened later” …

“We now know with much more certainty how ancient ice sheets responded to solar radiation, and that will be very useful in better understanding what the future holds,” Clark said. “It’s good to get this pinned down.” …

Sometime around now, scientists say, the Earth should be changing from a long interglacial period that has lasted the past 10,000 years and shifting back towards conditions that will ultimately lead to another ice age …” “Long debate ended over cause, demise of ice ages – may also help predict future“

“Abstract: We are experiencing a period of intense anthropocentrism: humans flatter themselves they can govern the thermal machine of the ocean-atmosphere system and build models of atmospheric circulation (that solve hundreds of non-linear equations for each box of a three-dimensional grid covering the globe) to demonstrate that Earth’s recent warming is attributable to anthropogenic CO₂ emissions.

However, the results of such a reductionist approach are questionable, since the atmosphere and oceans form a complex interactive system that cannot be recreated in a laboratory experiment, and where the many physical and chemical processes are regulated by dynamic and thermodynamic parameters, interconnected in a non-linear way, and there are various positive and negative feedback processes.

Only a holistic approach that analyses the system in its entirety, and drastically reduces the number of degree of freedom, can provide information on the way in which the global environmental system operates. When the Sun, atmospheric circulation, Earth’s rotation, and sea temperature have been investigated as a single unit, the linkage between the Sun and climate is confirmed (Mazzarella, 2007, 2008); application of this integrated model provides a forecast estimate for a gradual cooling of the Earth’s atmosphere in this decade.” “Sun-Climate Linkage Now Confirmed“
-

“Abstract: Ocean heat content data from 2003 to 2008 (4.5 years) were evaluated for trend. A trend plus periodic (annual cycle) model fit with R² = 0.85. The linear component of the model showed a trend of −0.35 (±0.2) × 10²² Joules per year. The result is consistent with other data showing a lack of warming over the past few years.” “Cooling of the Global Ocean Since 2003“

“This graphic is from figure 1 of the technical paper and shows the decline in ocean heat content (x10²²J) smoothed with a 1-2-1 filter.” “The Ocean Really is Cooling“
-

“A team of researchers are warning that global warming is accelerating faster than previously forecasted by UN experts two years ago.

Sea levels this century may rise several times higher than predictions made in 2007, research presented March 10 at the International Scientific Congress on climate change in Copenhagen shows.” “Scientist Say Sea Levels Increasing Dangerously Fast“

“Global warming is accelerating faster”??? It’s not accelerating faster, it’s not even accelerating, it’s not even increasing, we’ve had a decade of cooling. “Sea levels this century may rise several times higher than predictions [climate model output] made in 2007?”??? Sea level has leveled off or decreased since 2006 (see graph). Journos these days just print whatever alarmists say to them.
-

“Hansen’s theory that CO2 forcing is hiding in the oceans can’t be true if the oceans are cooling, as my latest paper shows (Energy & Environment Vol. 20, No. 1&2, 2009).

Excerpt below:

Cooling of the global ocean since 2003

By Craig Loehle, Ph.D. National Council for Air and Stream Improvement, Inc. (NCASI)

ABSTRACT

Ocean heat content data from 2003 to 2008 (4.5 years) were evaluated for trend. A trend plus periodic (annual cycle) model fit with R2 = 0.85. The linear component of the model showed a trend of -0.35 (~0.2) x 1022 Joules per year. The result is consistent with other data showing a lack of warming over the past few years.” GreenieWatch h/t Marc Morano
-

“People across Europe awoke on 6 January 1709 to find the temperature had plummeted. A three-week freeze was followed by a brief thaw – and then the mercury plunged again and stayed there. From Scandinavia in the north to Italy in the south, and from Russia in the east to the west coast of France, everything turned to ice. The sea froze. Lakes and rivers froze, and the soil froze to a depth of a metre or more. Livestock died from cold in their barns, chicken’s combs froze and fell off, trees exploded and travellers froze to death on the roads. It was the coldest winter in 500 years.

IN ENGLAND they called the winter of 1709 the Great Frost. In France it entered legend as Le Grand Hiver, three months of deadly cold that ushered in a year of famine and food riots. In Scandinavia the Baltic froze so thoroughly that people could walk across the ice as late as April. In Switzerland hungry wolves crept into villages. Venetians skidded across their frozen lagoon, while off Italy’s west coast, sailors aboard English men-of-war died from the cold. “I believe the Frost was greater (if not more universal also) than any other within the Memory of Man,” wrote William Derham, one of England’s most meticulous meteorological observers. He was right. Three hundred years on, it holds the record as the coldest European winter of the past half-millennium. …

On the night of 5 January, the temperature fell dramatically and kept on falling. On 10 January, Derham logged -12 °C, the lowest temperature he had ever measured. In France, the temperature dipped lower still. In Paris, it sank to -15 °C on 14 January and stayed there for 11 days. After a brief thaw at the end of that month the cold returned with a vengeance and stayed until mid-March. …

Fish froze in the rivers, game lay down in the fields and died, and small birds perished by the million. The loss of tender herbs and exotic fruit trees was no surprise, but even hardy native oaks and ash trees succumbed. The loss of the wheat crop was “a general calamity”. England’s troubles were trifling, however, compared to the suffering across the English Channel. …

[I]n Burgundy, “travellers died in the countryside, livestock in the stables, wild animals in the woods; nearly all the birds died, wine froze in barrels and public fires were lit to warm the poor”. From all over the country came reports of people found frozen to death. And with roads and rivers blocked by snow and ice, it was impossible to transport food to the cities. Paris waited three months for fresh supplies. …

[S]ince [the year] 1500 … [t]he winter of 1708-1709 was the coldest. Across large parts of Europe the temperature was as much as 7 °C below the average for 20th-century Europe.” “1709: The year that Europe froze” h/t arclein
-

“This is shown by Figure 3 of Northern Hemisphere ice volume for the last 200,000 years and a projection for the next 130,000 years. According to these calculations, the Earth is at the beginning of a 20,000 year plunge into the next ice age.” “Ice Ages and sea level“

“Apart from common sense, the only other aspect totally absent from the global warming debate is “global warming” itself. There is talk of emissions reductions, carbon trading, and even drowning polar bears; but there is no talk about actual current global temperature increases with the continuous increase in global CO2 emissions.

“Nonetheless, by coincidence, growing recognition of a threat of climatic cooling is correct, because since the turn of the 21st century all real-world, long-term climate indicators have turned downwards. Global atmospheric temperature reached a peak in 1998, has not warmed since 1995 and, has been cooling since 2002. Some people, still under the thrall of the Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change’s disproved projections of warming, seem surprised by this cooling trend, even to the point of denying it. But why? …

Thus, using several fundamentally different mathematical techniques and many different data sets, seven scientists all forecast that climatic cooling will occur during the first decades of the 21st century. Temperature records confirm that cooling is under way, the length and intensity of which remains unknown.

Yet in spite of this, governments across the world – egged on by irrational, deep Green lobbying – have for years been using their financial muscle and other powers of persuasion to introduce carbon dioxide taxation systems. …

Introduction of a carbon dioxide tax to prevent (imaginary) warming, euphemistically disguised as an emissions trading scheme, is a politician’s, ticket clipper’s and mafia chief’s dream. All will welcome a new source of income based on an invisible, colourless, odourless, tasteless and often unmeasurable gas. No commodity changes hands during its trading, and should carbon dioxide emissions actually decrease because of the existence of a carbon dioxide market (which is highly unlikely), the odds are that it will have no measurable effect on climate anyway. Nonetheless, the glistening pot of gold which beckons to be mined from the innocent public is proving nigh irresistible, and it is going to need a strong taxpayer revolt to stop it in Australia.

The present global financial crisis should be inducing politicians not to squander money on non-solutions to non-problems. Yet to support their plans for emissions taxation Western governments, including ours, are still propagating scientifically juvenile greenhouse propaganda underpinned only by circumstantial evidence and GCM computer gamesmanship.” “Facts debunk global warming alarmism“

“Hundreds of thousands of skaters, their cheeks as red as apples in the freezing temperatures, took to the ice, and hospital wards were filled with dozens of people with fractured arms, sprained ankles and broken legs. Train engineers were ordered to go slowly to avoid hitting skaters who clambered across railway tracks to get from one frozen canal to another.” “Canal ice helps Dutch rediscover national identity“
-

“Another factor contributing to the global cooling period is the decline in sunspot activity according to Jay Lehr, a senior fellow and science director of The Heartland Institute.

“[I] think more importantly it is to look at the sun’s output, and in recent years, we’ve seen very, very low sunspot activity, and we are definitely – in my mind – not only in a cooling period, we’re going to be staying in it for a couple decades,” Lehr said.

Lehr said … [he] hoped [the cooling trend] would have an impact on legislators to resist the temptation to pass and sort of climate change regulation that could further hurt the U.S. economy. …

“[A]lthough I think we will be able to adapt to it, I’m hopeful that this change in the sun’s output will put some common sense into the legislature – not to pass any dramatic cap-and-trade or carbon tax legislation that will set us in a far deeper economic hole,” Lehr added. … “But, I think if we pass any dramatic legislation to reduce greenhouse gases, the recession is going to last quite a few more years and we’ll come out of it with a lower standard of living as a result on very tenuous scientific grounds.” …

“It just seems silly to not recognize that the earth’s climate is driven by the sun,” Lehr said. “Your Chad Myers about a month ago pointed out it’s really arrogant for mankind to think he controls the climate or the universe. Only 4 percent of our greenhouse gas is carbon dioxide. Ninety percent is water vapor which we have no impact over.”

Lehr told Dobbs it would be a mistake to enact policy that was intended to reduce the amount of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere …

“In Europe they started carbon cap and trade in 2005. They’ve had no reduction in greenhouse gases, but a 5 percent to 10 percent increase in the [cost of] standard of living. We don’t want to go that route.”" “CNN Segment Warns of the Coming Ice Age“

Steven Goddard explains why antarctic albedo increase is far greater than arctic albedo decrease, leading to net global cooling:

“All of these points work together to support the idea that so far, polar ice albedo feedback has been opposite of what the models have predicted. To date, the effect of polar albedo change has most likely been negative, whereas all the models predicted it to be positive. There appears to be a tendency in the climate community to discount the importance of the Antarctic sea ice increase, and this may not be appropriate.” “Polar sea ice changes are having a net cooling effect on the climate“
-

“We are almost at the half way point for the meteorological winter (December through February) and it is a good time to evaluate how the NOAA CPC (Climate Prediction Center) and UK Met Office winter forecasts are doing so far. As seen below, CPC forecast the highest probability of warmth for Alaska and the upper midwest.

Looking at the results, it appears that the CPC forecast map was approximately inverted from what has actually occurred. The near record cold air which has been sitting over Alaska, is now pouring into the upper midwest. As of this morning, the temperature in International Falls, Minnesota is -22F, and historical cold is forecast for the coming weeks across most of the midwest and eastern US. …

On the other side of the pond, The Met Office famously forecast another warm season for the UK. Their scorecard is doing equally well, with the UK having it’s coldest winter in decades …” “Mid-winter report card“
-

Like RSS, UAH shows global cooling from November to December: “UAH is out, like RSS it is down a bit“

“Here’s a figure showing temperatures since Jan 2001, with anomalies rebaselined to the average for the period.” “The RSS anomoly for December has been posted“