Heliogenic Climate Change

What planet is this AP journo living on?

“The European Space Agency is launching a satellite that scientists hope will help them pin down the effects of global warming on the Earth’s ice packs more precisely.

The CryoSat 2 mission, which starts Thursday after years of delays, will be able to pinpoint details of changes in polar ice so scientists can better understand the alarming picture of the world’s retreating ice caps.  …

For coastal cities and islands, the information may be a question of survival.

If all of the Earth’s polar ice and glaciers were to melt, sea levels could rise up to 230 feet (70 meters), Miller said.

If only Greenland became ice-free, it would mean a 21.33-foot (6.5-meter) rise, he said.”  “EU satellite to check climate change impact on ice“

Meanwhile, on planet Earth, arctic sea ice is at its 30-year average, antarctic sea ice continues to grow, and:

“The extent of sea ice over the Arctic Ocean grew until the last day of March, the latest the annual melting season has begun in 31 years of satellite records, the U.S. National Snow and Ice Data Center said.”  “Arctic Sea Ice Melting Season Posts Latest Start on Record“

“Low-level clouds cover more than a quarter of the Earth and exert a strong cooling effect at the surface.  … Cloud tops have a high albedo and exert their cooling effect by scattering back into the cosmos much of the sunlight that could otherwise warm the surface.

But the snows on the Antarctic ice sheets are dazzlingly white, with a higher albedo than the cloud tops. There, extra cloud cover warms the surface, and less cloudiness cools it.  Satellite measurements show the warming effect of clouds on Antarctica, and meteorologists at far southern latitudes confirm it by observation.  …

The cosmic-ray and cloud-forcing hypothesis therefore predicts that temperature changes in Antarctica should be opposite in sign to changes in temperature in the rest of the world. This is exactly what is observed, in a well-known phenomenon that some geophysicists have called the polar see-saw, but for which “the Antarctic climate anomaly” seems a better name (Svensmark 2007).

To account for evidence spanning many thousands of years from drilling sites in Antarctica and Greenland, which show many episodes of climate change going in opposite directions, ad hoc hypotheses on offer involve major reorganization of ocean currents. While they might be possible explanations for low-resolution climate records, with error-bars of centuries, they cannot begin to explain the rapid operation of the Antarctic climate anomaly from decade to decade as seen in the 20th century (figure 6).

Cloud forcing is by far the most economical explanation of the anomaly on all timescales.  Indeed, absence of the anomaly would have been a decisive argument against cloud forcing – which introduces a much-needed element of refutability into climate science.”  “Cosmoclimatology:  a new theory emerges“  h/t WUWT

Keep in mind that the Antarctic Peninsula is the only part of Antarctica that is warming, that the warming is caused by changes in ocean currents, not “global warming”, that the continent as a whole is on a 50-year cooling trend, and that the peninsula is only 5% of the area of Antarctica.  Yet USGS paints a scenario where warming in the small northerly peninsula is going to cause the entire massive antarctic ice sheet to flow into the ocean causing a sea level rise which will “threaten coastal communities and low-lying islands worldwide”.  Your tax dollars paid for this propaganda:

“Ice shelves are retreating in the southern section of the Antarctic Peninsula due to climate change. This could result in glacier retreat and sea-level rise if warming continues, threatening coastal communities and low-lying islands worldwide.  …

The ice shelves are attached to the continent and already floating, holding in place the Antarctic ice sheet that covers about 98 percent of the Antarctic continent. As the ice shelves break off, it is easier for outlet glaciers and ice streams from the ice sheet to flow into the sea. The transition of that ice from land to the ocean is what raises sea level.

“The loss of ice shelves is evidence of the effects of global warming …” [said USGS scientist Jane Ferrigno].”  “Ice Shelves Disappearing on Antarctic Peninsula“

“And just in case further evidence is needed, [a] recent 2009 paper by Turner et al. (on which Comiso was a co-author), concluded that:

Based on a new analysis of passive microwave satellite data, we demonstrate that the annual mean extent of Antarctic sea ice has increased at a statistically significant rate of 0.97% dec^-1 since the late 1970s.

This rate of increase is nearly twice as great as the value given in the [UN IPCC's] AR4 (from its non-peer-reviewed source).

So, the peer reviewed literature, both extant at the time of the AR4 as well as published since the release of the AR4, shows that there has been a significant increase in the extent of sea ice around Antarctica since the time of the first satellite observations observed in the late 1970s. And yet the AR4 somehow “assessed” the evidence and determined not only that the increase was only half the rate established in the peer-reviewed literature, but also that it was statistically insignificant as well. And thus, the increase in sea ice in the Antarctic was downplayed in preference to highlighting the observed decline in sea ice in the Arctic.

It is little wonder why, considering that the AR4 found that “Sea ice is projected to shrink in both the Arctic and Antarctic under all SRES scenarios.””  “Another IPCC error:  antarctic sea ice increase underestimated by 50%“

“[Antarctica is] not melting anything like as much as expected [by alarmists]. In fact, during the continent’s summer this time last year, there was less melting than at any time in the 30 years that we have had reliable satellite measurements of the region.  …

John King of the British Antarctic Survey, based in Cambridge, warned against misinterpreting the lack of summer warming.

“Climate change denialists will use this work as evidence that Antarctica is not warming, despite the authors saying their works show no such thing,” he said.”  “Why Antarctica Isn’t Melting Much — Yet“

““While sea ice melts away and the oceans warm, the Obama administration is frozen in inaction. Instead of protecting penguins and taking meaningful steps to address global warming,” said Shaye Wolf, a biologist with the Center for Biological Diversity, “our government is dragging its feet while penguins are marching toward extinction.“”  “Suit to Be Filed Over Delay in Protection for Penguins Hurt by Climate Change and Industrial Fisheries“

“Of the original 110 dataseries, only 18 are left. The original 2700+ datapoints are down to around 600. And what do you know – the series shows a whopping slope of 0.0447 which would mean a trend of 4.47 degrees of warming per century! I am sorry boys and girls, but there simply is no way in HELL that you can “accidentally” remove all series that show less of an upward trend, and settle for 18 of the most upward trending series (thus raising the warming / century by 3 degrees!). I don’t know how they do things with the GHCN dataset, or who is responsible for this, but just like New Zealand this is pretty damning evidence that all the “adjustments” are done to deliberately corrupt data to cause specific trends.” “GHCN Antarctica : Careful selection of data“

“So as we can see, of all the stations available in the antarctic, GHCN has chosen to use a single station on the Antarctic Peninsula to represent an entire continent of the earth for the past 17 years (red circle). But it’s not just any station, it’s a special one. Rothera Point has the single highest trend of any of the adjusted station data. …

I’m sick to death of advocate scientists pretending there are only minimal problems in the temperature record. Currently the ‘homogenized’ value added version of GHCN has a trend that is EIGHT times higher than actual for the ENTIRE ANTARCTIC CONTINENT.” “GHCN Antarctic, 8X actual trend — uses single warmest station“
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“A HUGE hole in the ozone layer has protected Antarctica from the impacts of global warming, according to scientists. The temperature across Antarctica has not risen over the past 30 years [it has cooled] and there has been a 10 per cent increase in the amount of sea ice appearing during winter.

Climate change sceptics regularly cite the lack of warming in Antarctica as evidence global warming is not happening.

However, researchers have now explained the phenomenon – they believe that a hole in the ozone layer above the continent has altered weather patterns and temperatures.

The Scientific Committee on Antarctic Research [SCARE] carried out the first comprehensive review of the state of Antarctica’s climate. Their report, Antarctic Climate Change and the Environment, is published today.

Professor John Turner of the British Antarctic Survey, lead editor of the report, said: “For me the most astonishing evidence is the way that one man-made environmental impact – the ozone hole – has shielded most of Antarctica from another – global warming.”" “Antarctica protected from global warming by hole in ozone layer“

Only one problem — the anthropogenic antarctic ozone hole theory is toast and solar-magnetic-field-modulated cosmic rays may be responsible (here and here).
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“A new study of Antarctica’s past climate reveals that temperatures during the warm periods between ice ages (interglacials) may have been higher than previously thought. The latest analysis of ice core records suggests that Antarctic temperatures may have been up to 6°C warmer than the present day. …

During the last warm period, about 125,000 years ago, sea level was around 5 metres higher than today.” “Mysteriously warm times in Antarctica“
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The ice melt across Antarctica during the antarctic summer (October-January) of 2008-2009 was the lowest ever recorded in the satellite history, ice is expanding on the continent, and antarctic sea ice continues its 30-year growth trend. How ignorant can this journo be?

“Hoping to better understand how a melting Antarctica could swamp the planet, a NASA plane outfitted with lasers and ground-penetrating radar made its first flight over the icy continent on Friday.

The DC-8 left Punta Arenas, Chile, on a mission to fly as low as 1,000 feet (300 meters) over Antarctica. Like the NASA satellite that has provided shocking data on how quickly Antarctic ice is disappearing, this plane will measure snow cover and ice thickness. But it also has equipment that will enable scientists to see under the ice shelves, measuring the water below.

The goal is to understand just how warm ocean currents may be pulling the ice sheets seaward, melting their undersides. These ice sheets are rapidly collapsing — as fast as nine meters (27 feet) a year according to a study published in the journal Nature last month. If they disappear, far greater ice masses that lie on Antarctic bedrock could then melt into the sea, submerging coastal communities around the globe.” “NASA flies over Antarctica to measure icemelt“

Figure 1. Standardized values of the Antarctic snow melt index (October-January) from 1980-2009 (adapted from Tedesco and Monaghan, 2009)

“Where are the headlines? Where are the press releases? Where is all the attention?

The ice melt across during the Antarctic summer (October-January) of 2008-2009 was the lowest ever recorded in the satellite history.

Such was the finding reported last week by Marco Tedesco and Andrew Monaghan in the journal Geophysical Research Letters:

A 30-year minimum Antarctic snowmelt record occurred during austral summer 2008–2009 according to spaceborne microwave observations for 1980–2009. Strong positive phases of both the El-Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Southern Hemisphere Annular Mode (SAM) were recorded during the months leading up to and including the 2008–2009 melt season.

The silence surrounding this publication was deafening.

It would seem that with oft-stoked fears of a disastrous sea level rise coming this century any news that perhaps some signs may not be pointing to its imminent arrival would be greeted by a huge sigh of relief from all inhabitants of earth (not only the low-lying ones, but also the high-living ones, respectively under threat from rising seas or rising energy costs).

But not a peep.” “Antarctic ice melt at lowest levels in satellite era“

“Ice is expanding in much of Antarctica, contrary to the widespread public belief that global warming is melting the continental ice cap. …

Antarctica has 90 per cent of the Earth’s ice and 80 per cent of its fresh water. Extensive melting of Antarctic ice sheets would be required to raise sea levels substantially, and ice is melting in parts of west Antarctica [primarily the antarctic peninsula]. …

However, the picture is very different in east Antarctica …

East Antarctica is four times the size of west Antarctica and parts of it are cooling. The Scientific Committee on Antarctic Research report prepared for last week’s meeting of Antarctic Treaty nations in Washington noted the South Pole had shown “significant cooling in recent decades“.

Australian Antarctic Division glaciology program head Ian Allison said sea ice losses in west Antarctica over the past 30 years had been more than offset by increases in the Ross Sea region, just one sector of east Antarctica. …

Ice core drilling in the fast ice off Australia’s Davis Station in East Antarctica by the Antarctic Climate and Ecosystems Co-Operative Research Centre shows that last year, the ice had a maximum thickness of 1.89m, its densest in 10 years. The average thickness of the ice at Davis since the 1950s is 1.67m.

A paper to be published soon by the British Antarctic Survey in the journal Geophysical Research Letters is expected to confirm that over the past 30 years, the area of sea ice around the continent has expanded.” “Revealed: Antarctic ice growing, not shrinking“

“Global warming alarmists have suggested that the ice sheets of Greenland and Antarctica may collapse, causing disastrous sea level rise. This idea is based on the concept of an ice sheet sliding down an inclined plane on a base lubricated by meltwater, which is itself increasing because of global warming.

In reality the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets occupy deep basins, and cannot slide down a plane. Furthermore glacial flow depends on stress (including the important yield stress) as well as temperature, and much of the ice sheets are well below melting point.

The accumulation of kilometres of undisturbed ice in cores in Greenland and Antarctica (the same ones that are sometimes used to fuel ideas of global warming) show hundreds of thousands of years of accumulation with no melting or flow. Except around the edges, ice sheets flow at the base, and depend on geothermal heat, not the climate at the surface. It is impossible for the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets to ‘collapse’.

In these days of alarmist warnings about climate warming, the ice sheets of Greenland and Antarctica have an important role. Many papers have described their melting at the present times, and dire predictions of many metres of sea level rise are common. Christoffersen and Hambrey published a typical paper on the Greenland ice sheet in Geology Today in May, 2006.

Their model, unfortunately, includes neither the main form of the Greenland Ice Sheet, nor an understanding of how glaciers flow. They predict the behaviour of the Ice Sheet based on melting and accumulation rates at the present day, and the concept of an ice sheet sliding down an inclined plane on a base lubricated by meltwater, which is itself increasing because of global warming. The same misconception is present in textbooks such as The Great Ice Age (2000) by R.C.L. Wilson and others, popular magazines such as the June 2007 issue of National Geographic, and other scientific articles such as Bamber et al. (2007), which can be regarded as a typical modelling contribution. The idea of a glacier sliding downhill on a base lubricated by meltwater seemed a good idea when first presented by de Saussure in 1779, but a lot has been learned since then.

In the present paper we shall try to show how the mechanism of glacier flow differs from this simple model, and why it is impossible for the Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheets to collapse. Ice sheets do not simply grow and melt in response to average global temperature. Anyone with this naïve view would have difficulty in explaining why glaciation has been present in the southern hemisphere for about 30 million years, and in the northern hemisphere for only 3 million years. …

Conclusion

The global warming doomsday writers claim the ice sheets are melting catastrophically, and will cause a sudden rise in sea level of many metres. This ignores the mechanism of glacier flow which is by creep: glaciers are not melting from the surface down, nor are they sliding down an inclined plane lubricated by meltwater. The existence of ice over 3 km thick preserving details of past snowfall and atmospheres, used to decipher past temperature and CO2 levels, shows that the ice sheets have accumulated for hundreds of thousands of years without melting. Variations in melting around the edges of ice sheets are no indication that they are collapsing. Indeed ‘collapse’ is impossible.” “Why the Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheets are Not Collapsing” h/t IceCap Aug. 25
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Jeff Id has worked out the weights given to the temperature trends of the four geographic regions of Antarctica by Stieg et al. in their paper which was featured on the cover of Nature early this year and created a sensation in alarmist circles and the press.

Remember, by far the largest region of Antarctica is East Antarctica, followed by West Antarctica. The Antarctic Peninsula, the only part of Antarctica where significant recent warming has occurred, is a very small percentage of the total area of the continent.

Yet, as you can see, the Steig paper weights the temperature trend of the tiny peninsula 72% of the total continental trend! In Jeff’s words, “There it is, we can now say conclusively that the positive [temperature] trend in the [Steig paper's] Antarctic reconstruction comes primarily from the well known peninsula warming trend.” “Antarctic warming — the final straw” Prior posts here
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“The above figures show that while the J-F-M ocean temperatures in the global 65-70S band have been on a general cooling trend, the opposite is true for the area of the [Antarctic Peninsula] ice shelves – where the ocean temperatures have been warming where the south Pacific water encounters the peninsula.” “Antarctic Sea Ice – Wilkins Ice Shelf“
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“Increased growth in Antarctic sea ice during the past 30 years is a result of changing weather patterns caused by the ozone hole according to new research published this week (Thurs 23 April 2009). …

Using satellite images of sea ice and computer models the scientists discovered that the ozone hole has strengthened surface winds around Antarctica and deepened the storms in the South Pacific area of the Southern Ocean that surrounds the continent. This resulted in greater flow of cold air over the Ross Sea (West Antarctica) leading to more ice production in this region.” “Increasing Antarctic Sea Ice Extent Linked to the Ozone Hole“

“New research has found that despite climate change concerns, the amount of ice may actually be increasing across much of Antarctica.

Ian Allison, head of the Australian Antarctic Division’s ice, ocean, atmosphere and climate program, says outside of western Antarctica, ice levels are remaining steady or possibly increasing. …

“In east Antarctica there may be a slight increase due to increased snow fall.”" “Ice cover ‘increasing in east Antarctica’“

“Abstract: This Letter reports reliable satellite data in the period of 1980–2007 covering two full 11-yr cosmic ray (CR) cycles, clearly showing the correlation between CRs and ozone depletion, especially the polar ozone loss (hole) over Antarctica. The results provide strong evidence of the physical mechanism that the CRdriven electron-induced reaction of halogenated molecules plays the dominant role in causing the ozone hole. Moreover, this mechanism predicts one of the severest ozone losses in 2008–2009 and probably another large hole around 2019–2020, according to the 11-yr CR cycle.” “Correlation between Cosmic Rays and Ozone Depletion“
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“I’ll say it now for the first time. In my opinion the paper is flawed and has an exaggerated warming trend due to bad mathematics. Temperature distributions on the continent are a result of artifacts in RegEM and not supported by the natural weather patterns as they were presented.

As an example which is pretty clear. Steig’s paper shows warming across the entire Antarctic. Here’s a plot of the ground data at the south pole.

A reconstruction cannot ignore a trend this strong. So TCO, it isn’t up to me. As Gavin likes to say, the data is the data. This data just cannot support Steig’s conclusions.” “Closest station antarctic reconstruction“
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“According to the University of Illinois, Antarctic sea ice area is nearly 30% above normal and the anomaly has reached 1,000,000 km2. …

According to NSIDC, over the last 30 years Antarctic sea ice extent has been growing at a rate of nearly 5% per decade, and set a record maximum last year. …

Sadly though, biologists using computer models have forecast that some Penguins are headed for extinction due to loss of Antarctic sea ice. …

The 30% excess of ice has not been widely reported, but there has been lots of talk in the press the last couple of days about ice breaking off the Wilkins Ice Shelf – the broken area being about one pixel in the NSIDC image above. Looking at the Wilkins picture below, I’m having a very tough time seeing any evidence of melting around the fractures, or any evidence of water pooling on the surface. Normally, such fractures are caused by tensile or shear stress, likely due to a change in currents. Ice melts from the edges towards the center, and that ice is very thick – up to 200 metres. Blaming the clean fractures seen below on warming and melting seems highly questionable – at best. I suggest bringing some actual structural and mechanical engineers into the discussion – how’s that for a novel idea in the AGW world?

Meanwhile in the Arctic, sea ice area is about 500,000 km2 below normal, which means that global sea ice area (Arctic + Antarctic) is about 500,000 km2 above normal. … Sounds like a real global meltdown, doesn’t it?” “Polar ice worries — north and south“
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Upper graph: “The difference is striking. The peninsula has become warmer and warming is largely limited to its confines. West Antarctica and the Ross Ice Shelf area have become noticeably cooler. This agrees with the commonly-held belief prior to Steig’s paper that the peninsula is warming, the rest of Antarctica is not.” “Steig’s antarctic heartburn“

Lower graph: Jeff and Jeff’s result agrees with NASA’s 2004 graph, which NASA keeps changing even though the data haven’t changed.

“Glaciers in Antarctica are melting faster and across a much wider area than previously thought, a development that threatens to raise sea levels worldwide and force millions of people to flee low-lying areas, scientists said Wednesday.

Researchers once believed that the melting was limited to the Antarctic Peninsula, a narrow tongue of land pointing toward South America. But satellite data and automated weather stations now indicate it is more widespread.

The melting “also extends all the way down to what is called west Antarctica,” said Colin Summerhayes, executive director of the Britain-based Scientific Committee on Antarctic Research.

“That’s unusual and unexpected,” he told The Associated Press in an interview.

By the end of the century, the accelerated melting could cause sea levels to climb by 3 to 5 feet — levels substantially higher than predicted by a major scientific group just two years ago.

Making matters worse, scientists said, the ice shelves that hold the glaciers back from the sea are also weakening.” “Antarctic glaciers melting faster than thought“