Heliogenic Climate Change

AGW climate modelers started with doom forecasts for this century. Then yesterday NOAA came out with an AGW climate model doom forecast for the next 1,000 years. Now some scientists have come out with an AGW climate model doom forecast for the next 100,000 years:

“According to a simulation of planetary warming trends, failure to drastically cut greenhouse gas pollution within the next half century could choke Earth’s oceans for the next 100,000 years.” “Climate Change Could Choke Oceans for 100,000 Years“

What’s next, a million-year doom forecast? The hubris of AGW climate modelers is truly amazing.
-

“Automakers said Monday that they were working toward President Obama’s goal of reducing fuel consumption, but rapid imposition of stricter emissions standards could force them to drastically cut production of larger, more profitable vehicles, adding to their financial duress. …

The announcement came as General Motors and Chrysler are borrowing billions of dollars from the government to avoid bankruptcy, and as Toyota prepares to report its first operating loss in 70 years. Shortly after the president spoke, General Motors said it would cut 2,000 jobs at plants in Michigan and Ohio because of slow sales.

The California regulations, if enacted today, “would basically kill the industry,” said David E. Cole, chairman of the Center for Automotive Research, an independent research organization in Ann Arbor, Mich. “It would have a devastating effect on everybody, and not just the domestics.”” “Detroit Calls Emissions Proposals Too Strict“
-

In 2007 Congress passed a law dictating a national CAFE standard of 35 mpg. It’s a crazy standard which is bankrupting Detroit and curtailing freedom of vehicle choice and which will accomplish nothing climatically since CO2 is a trivial player in the climate game. All pain for no gain.

Now Obama and Congress are allowing bureaucrat eco-zealots at EPA to “reconsider” California’s request for a waiver from that crazy standard and to impose an even crazier standard which many other states will immediately copy, leading to a new national standard dictated by EPA, not the people through their elected representatives in Congress.

How much longer will the American people allow their freedoms and pocketbooks to be raided by crazy eco-zealots in the name of fighting a non-existent phantom menace? The planet is in a decade-long cooling phase but still the zealots persist in their global warming doom fantasy. Congress and Obama have abdicated their responsibility and turned it over to green fanatics at EPA.
-

Aren’t you getting tired of this continual drumbeat of crap, paid for by your tax dollars?:

“A new scientific study led by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration reaches a powerful conclusion about the climate change caused by future increases of carbon dioxide: to a large extent, there’s no going back.” “New Study Shows Climate Change Largely Irreversible“

“President Barack Obama’s trillion dollar stimulus plan, has morphed into an appropriations bill devoid of debate. The process forgoes any pretense of targeting unemployed people and resources.

For instance, the bill reads “Provided further, That not less than $140,000,000 shall be available for climate data modeling.” This raises the question of how many unemployed climate modelers are out there pounding the pavement.

When presented with that question, last Friday, Pat Michaels, former president of the American Association of State Climatologists stated “I don’t know one unemployed modeler.”

Whether or not another $140,000,000 for climate data modeling is a good idea, it is hard to see an immediate, economy-stimulating impact from this item.

What’s the rush? Maybe they need to get all their modeling done before another cool year highlights how bad the models are.” “Stimulus plan: non-existent unemployed climate modelers get $140 million“

“Thirty one years ago the Department of Energy (DOE) was established during the Carter Administration. They currently have 16,000 federal employees, and approximately 100,000 contract employees. Their proposed budget is up 4.7% from 2008. No one seems to know why the DOE was founded. The reason given 31 years ago was “to lessen our dependence on foreign oil”. Instituted on 8/4/77, the DOE is asking for 25.2 billion in discretionary funding in the US annual budget for 2009.” “Eliminate DOE for Deficit Reduction“
-

“Greenwire has a long lead story (subscription required) in today’s edition by Daniel Cusick about the plans of the Navajo Nation to build three huge new coal-fired power plants totaling 5,300 megawatts in order to exploit their enormous coal resources. These new plants could supply enough electricity for approximately four million homes in the rapidly growing cities of the Southwest.

In an interview accompanying the story, Navajo President Joe Shirley, Jr., responded to a question about whether he was concerned about all the greenhouse gas emissions that these plants would produce by saying:

“That’s a resource that was put there by the Creator for us to use. … To have the Creator bring that about, and then to say, ‘Hey, we don’t want that,’ I don’t think that’s right. We need to develop it.”” “Navajo Nation Steps Up to Supply America’s Energy Needs“

NHS is probably just using “global warming” as an excuse to cut costs (meat is expensive) in the government-financed, government-run, expensive, inferior health care system:

“Meat-free menus are to be promoted in hospitals as part of a strategy to cut global warming emissions across the National Health Service.” “Hospitals will take meat off menus in bid to cut carbon” h/t Tom Nelson

“Germany is building 27 coal-fired plants by 2020 and Italy plans to increase its reliance on coal from 14% today to 33% in just five years. Throughout Europe, 40 new coal-fired plants are set to be built in the next five years. China can’t build them fast enough and India plans to boost coal production by 50% by 2012 and quadruple it by 2030.” “Coal, Glorious Coal!“
-

“As shown here, though there has clearly been some cyclical warming in recent decades (most notably 1979 to 1998) confirmed by satellites, the global surface station based data is seriously compromised by urbanization and other local factors (land-use /land-cover, improper siting, station dropout, instrument changes unaccounted for and missing data) and uncertainties in ocean temperatures. Thus the data bases can’t be relied on to determine accurate trends. These factors all lead to overestimation of temperatures. Numerous peer-reviewed papers (referenced below in bold) in the last several years have shown this overestimation is the order of 30 to 50% from these issues alone.” “United States and Global Data Integrity Issues“
-

He’s lucky. In days past he would have been burned at the stake:

“Interestingly Bond University has a new name for its business and IT faculties, The Faculty of Business, Technology & Sustainable Development, but apparently didn’t like Professor Jenkins’ very public opinion on the subject of sustainable development. For his opinion, Professor Jenkins received an official reprimand from the Bond University Registrar and then was informed last Friday that his adjunct status had been revoked.” “Bond University Dismisses Climate Change Sceptic“

On January 22 EPA Region 8 sent a 12-page letter to the State of South Dakota objecting to the state issuing a permit to build and operate a coal-fired power plant in Big Stone City. I urge everyone who is interested in appreciating the regulatory hell a company and a state must go through in order to get a permit approved by EPA to read the letter. In order to read it you will need these abbreviations:

PSD: prevention of significant deterioration
NSPS: new source performance standards
HAP: hazardous air pollutant
BACT: best available control technology
MACT: maximum achievable control technology
SSM: startup, shutdown, and malfunction
CEMS: continuous emission monitoring system
PAL: plant applicability limit
PTE: potential to emit
SCR: selective catalytic reduction

Basically, the company failed to satisfy EPA that it had properly addressed monitoring and control issues for SO2, NOx, HF, and HCl. This is common because of the complexity of the innumerable regulations and EPA has issued many such letters in the past. The company and the state have 90 days to satisfy EPA, which they probably will do, and then the permit will be issued:

“Neither [state Environment Secretary Steve] Pirner nor Otter Tail [Power communications director for the project Dan] Sharp saw the EPA objections as a death knell for the Big Stone II project.

“It’s a standard procedure for EPA to review Title V permit applications,” Sharp said. “This is not unusual.”" source

Notice (1) there is no mention (zip, zero, nada) of carbon dioxide or soot in the letter (CO2 has not (yet) been “found” by EPA to be a “HAP” (definition above) and is not (yet) regulated by EPA), (2) the letter is from EPA Region 8, not headquarters in D.C., and (3) the Region had been working on the very detailed objections for 45 days, i.e., during the Bush presidency:

“However, the EPA [Region 8] said Friday that the timing of its objection letter, sent to South Dakota officials on Thursday, was not related to the new president.

“It would be fair to say” that the letter would have also been sent under the Bush administration, said Carl Daly, chief of the EPA’s Region 8 air permit unit.” source

The enviros have spun this in two ways. First, they claim “Obama did it!”, and second, that CO2 and soot are among the reasons for the letter. This from the Sierra Club:

“EPA Makes First Decision under President Obama and Overturns Power Plant Permit. Less than three days after President Obama took office, the United States is one step closer to cleaner air, reducing our contribution to global warming and protecting communities.

Coal-fired power plants contribute to 30% of our nation’s carbon dioxide emissions, making them the leading contributor to global warming. In the first major coal plant decision to come out of the Obama EPA, the agency overturned South Dakota’s approval of the massive Big Stone II coal-fired power plant. EPA’s decision comes after the state failed to require state-of-the-art pollution controls for the coal plant that would address concerns about harmful soot, smog and global warming pollution.”

This from Clean Water Action:

“The EPA’s decision comes after the state failed to require state-of-the-art pollution controls for the coal plant that would address concerns about harmful soot, smog and global warming pollution.”

“As a new member of the California State Assembly, I have introduced my first bill to suspend AB32 — the so-called California Global Warming Solutions Act of 2006.

In 2006, on a party-line vote, legislative Democrats passed AB32 over the objections of Republicans. Authored by then-Assembly Speaker Fabien Núñez, ostensibly to combat the effects of global warming, AB32 forces businesses to reduce greenhouse gas emissions to 1990 levels by the year 2020.

Appealing to the politically correct crowd of 2006, AB32 was hailed far and wide by left-leaning political elites. They could not have envisioned our economic downturn or the devastating effects of AB32 on California’s economy and it’s environment — or could they? …

Because of our high land costs, environmental fees, impact fees, and over-regulation of business, we will end up buying the green technology and products from Nevada, Texas, Mexico and China. The growing chorus in business is A.B.C. … Anywhere But California.

In the last year alone, California lost 95,000 private sector jobs and our manufacturing base has been devastated. An independent economist stated AB32 is a threat to our remaining 1.5 million manufacturing jobs.

AB32 will hurt our environment. AB32 is a job killer — businesses can’t comply and remain competitive, so they are leaving. This has resulted in less tax revenue for environmental mitigation, bringing a halt to many programs that keep our public safe from toxic waste and limit our ability to provide safe, clean, water. As of now, there are thousands of toxic sites in California and no money to mitigate.

Given the current state of our economy, AB32 must be suspended before it suspends our funding for schools, law enforcement, parks, water storage, and any hope of economic recovery. At its most basic analysis — no private sector jobs, no economy, no tax revenues for the state for anything. We will be broke. But we will be politically correct and Hollywood will love us!” “AB32 cripples state’s ability to compete in global economy“
-

“Vehicle Rationing – To comply with CARB’s [California Air Resources Board] regulation, every automaker must sell the “right” mix of vehicles – some vehicles above the standard and some vehicles below the standard. If consumers do not buy the right mix of vehicles, the only realistic way for an automaker to comply will be to ration sales of certain models, or deeply discount other models. Both options distort the market and hurt dealers.” “Support A Single Federal Fuel Economy Standard” h/t Planet Gore
-

“The latest in an annual series of polls from the Pew Research Center on people’s top priorities for their elected leaders shows that America and President Obama are completely out of sync on human-caused global warming. Mr. Obama stressed the issue throughout his campaign and several times in his inaugural speech, mentioning stabilizing climate in the same breath as preventing nuclear conflict at one point. According to the survey of 1,503 adults, global warming, on its own, ranks last out of 20 surveyed issues.” “Obama Urgent on Warming, Public Cool“
-

“Is Antarctica warming or cooling? Either way it proves global warming, according to climate modelers.

In the 1990s, predictions of a greenhouse-warmed Antarctic abounded. As time passed, though, problems surfaced. Research paper after paper indicated that, other than the tiny Antarctica peninsula, the continent was in fact cooling — and had been doing so for many decades.

Skeptics pointed to this as a flaw in global warming theory. Not so fast, cried the climate modelers. They quickly spun a number of possible explanations, including ozone holes, ocean currents, and terrain that cut off Antarctica from the world’s warming. As the certainty in the cooling trend grew, so did their statements, until they eventually began stating that they had predicted a cooling trend all along.

As the folks at RealClimate put it, “Doesn’t this contradict [global warming]? Not at all, because a cold Antarctica is just what calculations predict… and have predicted for the past quarter century.”

Cooling was thus cast as proof of global warming, not refutation. The media dutifully shifted their cameras from penguins to polar bears. The world was safe for Kyoto again.

But now a new paper has appeared, saying that Antarctica is warming after all. Written by Eric Steig and Drew Shindell, the paper purports to prove that past evidence of cooling was incorrect. But doesn’t that contradict the models? Not if one can again rewrite history.

Speaking at a news conference today, Steig says, “We now see warming is taking place [in] accord with what models predict as a response to greenhouse gases.”

In 2004, Shindell had something very different to say. That year he authored a paper that stated, “Surface temperatures [had] decreased significantly over most of Antarctica,” Shindell added, “This cooling is consistent with circulation changes”. He dedicated the rest of the paper to demonstrating that climate modeling “reproduces the vertical structure and seasonality of observed [cooling] trends.”

Today, Shindell says, “It’s extremely difficult to think of any physical way that you could have increasing greenhouse gases not lead to warming at the Antarctic continent.”. One can only wonder if he kept a straight face.

Even the New York Times is playing along, saying that cooling “ran counter to the forecasts of computer climate models”. Memories are short.

The real story here isn’t Antarctica. It’s the willingness to rationalize model results to fit any and all scenarios. To the modelers, their results are consistent with. . . well, everything. Whether warmer or colder, flood or drought, more storms or less — it’s all proof that global warming is real and happening now.

This, of course, isn’t real science. A true theory require something called falsifiability — a set of conditions under which it can be disproven. So far, this is something the modelers have failed to give. It allows them to maintain a facade of unflappable certainty– but it isn’t science.

Among researchers who work with actual climate data, skepticism is climbing. The modelers at least remain faithful. But as of now, their predictions are rather like the gypsy fortune teller who tells you, “You will live a long life — unless you die young.”" “Will the real Antarctica please stand up“

“WASHINGTON (Reuters) – A proposal issued in the final days of the Bush administration to expand offshore drilling in previously banned areas will move forward under the administration of U.S. President Barack Obama, an Interior Department spokesman told Reuters on Wednesday. …

Hugh Vickery, a department spokesman, said the department has been notified by the White House that it will be able to proceed with a proposed draft of a five-year plan to lease areas in the Atlantic and Pacific waters for oil and natural gas drilling.

The preliminary plan would authorize 31 energy exploration lease sales between 2010 and 2015 for tracts along the east coast and off the coasts of Alaska and California.” “Offshore drilling plan to go ahead: Interior Dept“

EU watermelons want a redistribution of wealth in the name of AGW:

“BRUSSELS/LONDON (Reuters) – Rich nations could raise $200 billion in climate funds through a levy on their greenhouse gases from 2013-2020 to help poor countries prepare for global warming, the European Union will say next week.

The plan is set out in an EU paper outlining the bloc’s position ahead of U.N.-led climate talks in Copenhagen in December, meant to agree a new, global climate treaty.” “EU to propose $200 billion climate tax on rich nations“

“[Pelosi] said she hopes to hold a vote [on the cap-and-trade bill] before December, when climate negotiators gather in Copenhagen, Denmark, to work on a successor to the treaty many countries adopted in Kyoto, Japan, in 1997.

“I believe we have to because we see that as a source of revenue,” she said, noting that proposed cap-and-trade bills would raise billions of dollars by forcing major emitters to buy credits to release greenhouse gases.” “Pelosi sketches strategy on key issues” h/t Roger Pielke, Jr.
-

“Former Vice President and Nobel laureate Al Gore will testify to Congress next week on global warming, Senator John F. Kerry announced this morning.

Gore, who was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize in 2007 for his advocacy on the issue and won an Oscar for his documentary “An Inconvenient Truth,” will testify before the Senate Foreign Relations Committee on Wednesday morning on climate change, the latest science, and the importance of US leadership.

“My friend and former Senate colleague Al Gore is one of this nation’s leading authorities on the subject of climate change, and we are honored that he has agreed to appear before the Committee,” Kerry said in a statement.” “Gore to talk to Congress on climate change“