Heliogenic Climate Change

“The real world sunspot data remaining quiet month after month are mocking the curved red predictions of NOAA and about to slide underneath. Time for a rethink I reckon NOAA !!
Here is my clearer chart showing the misfit between NOAA / NASA prediction and real-world data.” “Hard lesson about solar realities for NOAA/NASA“

“Last year, Washington passed legislation requiring the U.S. auto fleet to meet an average 35-mpg fuel-economy goal by 2020, a mandate designed to reduce greenhouse emissions that is utterly divorced from whatever consumer market tastes might be. Employing an army of lobbyists, the Big Three protested a regulatory burden estimated to cost a staggering $85 billion over ten years. When their protests fell on deaf ears, automakers then demanded that the feds pony up $25 billion to help retool American factories to produce the fuel-efficient cars Washington requires. A partnership was born. … After all, how can General Motors save the planet if it’s in bankruptcy?” “Uncle Sam, Automaker“

Insanity in the name of “fighting global warming”. No one wants tiny dangerous cars which kill far more people than larger, heavier, safer cars. Greenicide.

“Scientists at MIT have recorded a nearly simultaneous world-wide increase in methane levels. This is the first increase in ten years, and what baffles science is that this data contradicts theories stating man is the primary source of increase for this greenhouse gas. It takes about one full year for gases generated in the highly industrial northern hemisphere to cycle through and reach the southern hemisphere. However, since all worldwide levels rose simultaneously throughout the same year, it is now believed this may be part of a natural cycle in mother nature – and not the direct result of man’s contributions.” “MIT scientists baffled by global warming theory, contradicts scientific data“

Can anyone say ocean offgassing?

The 2007 increase was 10 parts per billion. Methane has 25 times the infrared absorption power of CO2, meaning that a 10 ppb increase is equivalent to a 0.25 ppm increase in CO2. Ho hum.

““We’re able for the first time to directly attribute warming in both the Arctic and the Antarctic to human influences,” said Nathan Gillett of England’s University of East Anglia of a study he led with colleagues in the United States, Britain and Japan. …

The study, comparing temperature records and four computer climate models, found a warming in both polar regions that could be best explained by a buildup of greenhouse gases, mainly from burning fossil fuels, rather than natural shifts.” “Man-Made Climate Change Seen In Antarctica, Arctic“

Let’s see, you write a computer program with CO2 as the determining variable, apply the data, and presto, CO2 is the cause! GIGO.

“A growing “carbon army” of environmentalists, bankers and investors has seized on official backing last week for major public spending announced in Britain and the United States.” ““Carbon Army” Hopes To Grab Slice Of New Deal Cash“

Pigs at the public trough.

The outrageous thing about the economic suicide of the West in the name of “fighting anthropogenic global warming” is that the whole greenhouse gas theory is based on an erroneous mathematical model.

The standard greenhouse gas model is based on the solution of Eddington’s differential equations (1916) describing radiation equilibrium in an infinite radiating and absorbing medium (derived by Eddington for the Sun). The standard model yields a temperature discontinuity at the Earth’s surface between the ground and atmosphere which does not exist. The real atmospheric temperature is in equilibrium with the ground temperature and the real atmosphere has finite height and and is semi-transparent to infrared.

Miskolczi solved the Eddington equations with the real boundary conditions (amazingly this had never been done before) and showed that the Earth’s surface temperature can only change with changes in insolation (incoming radiation from the Sun) or albedo (cloud cover, modulated by cosmic rays). “Runaway” greenhouse warming is impossible: an increase in CO2 leads to a decrease in water vapor and a restoration of equilibrium; the total greenhouse effect remains constant unless insolation or albedo changes.

Decreasing humidity does correlate inversely with increasing CO2. As long as the Earth has oceans it can’t have “runaway” greenhouse warming. A negative water vapor feedback mechanism, not a positive feedback as in the standard model, operates. The Sun, not CO2, drives climate change.

Miskolczi shows that warming due to a doubling of CO2 (which would be compensated by cooling due to a decrease in water vapor, leading to a zero net temperature change) would be only 0.24 degrees.

The best website to explore Miskolczi’s model is David Stockwell’s site (search for Miskolczi). You physicists out there need to read about it. Some references:

Miskolczi paper

Stockwell review

Stockwell series

Ken Gregory review

Noor van Andel review

Miklos Zagoni review

h/ts Benny Peiser, CCNet:

“”If we were forced to close the German [cement] plants, for example, we could offset this with the construction of two new high-performance production facilities in China with an investment volume of € 300 million”, said Dr Bernd Scheifele, chairman of the company’s Management Board.

The company [Heidelberg Cement] employs 8200 people in Europe, 1500 of whom are based in Germany.

Dr Scheifele continued, “The cost advantages of China would almost double as a result of the CO₂ expense, making competitive domestic production in Europe no longer an option. It would be feasible to supply European markets from locations outside the EU via an efficient trading network.”" “Heidelberg attacks EU carbon trading plans“

“According to official figures, climate change policies already account for 21% of the average business electricity bill – this is especially damaging for heavy energy users including chemicals, cement and steel. But by 2020, the burden of green policies is expected to rise to 55% of the average business electricity bill. Green policies are not just futile – they guarantee the further migration of industry out of Britain and, therefore, continuing “de-industrialisation”. People will lose their jobs and the country will be all the poorer. But these, very obvious, implications of the climate change bill have, with a few exceptions, been downplayed by our MPs” “The climate change bill: a futile and very costly folly“

“The estimates suggest that CTL technology and synthetic fuels make economic sense only when oil prices are above $50 a barrel. So given current oil prices, CTL fuels seem entirely feasible as an investment option. But just as important, CTL systems could rev up thermal efficiency in power stations and boost feedstock supply for fertiliser plants. The implications can be huge.

In the ‘indirect liquefaction’ CTL route, coal is first gasified using oxygen and steam to form ‘syngas’ (a mixture of hydrogen and carbon monoxide). Syngas then can be further processed, via the proven Fischer-Tropsch (F-T) technology, to get liquid fuels like diesel and petrol. Next, depending on coal quality and requisite systems, F-T processes can yield substantial quantities of ammonia. The latter can be used to produce large quantities of nitrogenous fertiliser read urea. Besides, Integrated Gasification Combined Cycle (IGCC) technology can be incorporated in F-T plant design-and vice versa-to generate power at very high thermal efficiency. The objective ought to be to diffuse IGCC systems in the power sector, with speed. It would then be possible to generate say a third or even 50% more power, using quite unchanged quantities of coal. Clearly, viable CTL technology would have multi-sectoral impact.

The other method, albeit less common is ‘direct liquefaction’, which adds gaseous hydrogen to a slurry of pulverized coal in the presence of catalysts. The process requires further refining so as to derive high-quality liquid fuels. But the fact remains that proven CTL technology is yet not widely diffused abroad. Actually, Sasol of South Africa seems to have the singular distinction of perfecting the technology for making petrol and diesel from coal, over the years. In fact, the parastatal company does operate the only commercial CTL plant in the world. Sasol produces about 150,000 barrels of synthetic fuel a day-using about 120,000 tonnes of coal-and meets about 28% of South Africa’s annual fuel needs. There are other technology vendors for CTL.” “Time to fire up CTL fuel policy“

“28th October 2008 will go down in history as ‘carbon fools day,’ a sad day for democracy and science, a day when opposition parties failed to challenge a dangerously unsound policy, devoid of any real scientific basis, without any hope of influencing climate change. Ironically, it was also a day when London saw the first October snow since 1974.

These ‘carbon fools,’ who are allowing the unjustified demonization of CO2 to be used as a weapon against prosperity, energy security and mobility, have committed the UK to an 80% reduction in CO2 emissions by 2050, without any mapped out strategy of how it will be achieved. Advice on that task falls to yet another expensive QUANGO, loaded with ‘Green Alliance’ members, namely the ‘Committee on Climate Change.’

By coincidence, 28th October 1971 was the day that MPs voted for us to join that other expensive, bureaucratic nightmare – the EEC, now the EU.” “UK Climate Bill: 80% Commitment, Zero Effect on Climate“

“Texas consumers and taxpayers could pay more than $2.2 billion a year in subsidies and higher transmission costs [for wind-generated electricity], a free-market research group said on Tuesday.

The state’s current push to accelerate use of wind-generated electricity is “costing, not saving, Texans billions of dollars,” said Bill Peacock, director of the Texas Public Policy Foundation’s Center for Economic Freedom.” “Texas study cites high cost of harnessing wind“

“In the current very low solar wind situation reported on last week (lowest in the satellite age and likely in at least 100 years), there are more galactic cosmic rays reaching into our atmosphere. These enhance low cloudiness. Low cloudiness holds down daytime readings and keeps up at night with a net cooling. The difference in the 11 year cycle has been up to 2% with a corresponding increase in albedo.” “Cloudy Coolish Summer Related to Slumbering Sun?“

“The PDO continues to be strongly negative and the ENSO measures are trending back towards La Nina. Should that surprise us? No, because most La Ninas have a tendency to persist more than one year and the negative PDO states favors more and stronger and longer lasting La Ninas. …

Since El Ninos lead to more global warmth than La Ninas, periods during which the PDO is positive and there are more and stronger El Ninos are not surprisingly periods of increasing global warmth (what we observed from 1979 to around 2000). Conversely cold PDO phases with more cool La Ninas lead to global cooling as we observed from the 1940s to 1970s and again after 2002.” “Pacific Decadal Oscillations Closely Tied to ENSO“

“The period of global warming that we have experienced on our planet over the last century, which has seen a rise in temperature of some 0,6 oC, does not correlate at all with a rise in the concentration of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2), but is does correlate with solar activity. Indications are that solar activity is the primary driver of the variation in global temperature.

Even more compelling is the fact that there exists a well-documented Roman Warm period from the time of the Roman Caesars, and a Medieval Warm Period, both of which correlate with solar activity, but certainly can have nothing whatever to do with CO2 produced by any human industrial activities.” “Solar activity the primary driver of global temperature rise“

In a previous post it was noted that changes in atmospheric circulation drive Arctic sea ice extent. Two new papers describe how changes in atmospheric circulation drive glacial surges in Greenland and west Antarctica:

“Two new studies summarized in a news article in Science magazine point to wind-induced circulation changes in the ocean as the dominant cause of the recent ice losses through the glaciers draining both the Greenland and West Antarctic ice sheets, not ‘global warming.’” “Winds are dominant cause of Greenland and West Antarctic Ice Sheet losses“

“Arctic Ice Increase Well Ahead of 2007 Pace“

As of today the Arctic has 1.4m sq. km more sea ice than last year.

“This graph shows average global temperature records for the last five years from two of the world’s most respected meteorological institutes, the UK’s Hadley Centre, and the University of Alabama in the US. Both show a clear downward trend, and the graph contrasts that trend explicitly with the rising trend of atmospheric CO2. So we have two conclusions: first of all, Al Gore’s alarmist predictions of rapidly accelerating temperatures, run-away warming and imminent Armageddon are just plain wrong, with each year that passes adding more nails to the coffin of his disaster movie. Second, the supposed correlation between atmospheric CO2 levels and temperature just does not exist. For years, temperatures have been falling while CO2 levels have risen.” “Global cooling continues“

“New targets to cut the UK’s greenhouse emissions by at least 80 per cent will cripple agriculture in the UK, according to farmers.

The Climate Change Committee, that is advising the Government on carbon-cutting legisation, recommended last week the target be raised from 60 to 80 per cent and include all greenhouse gases.

This means that methane and nitrouse oxide, which are mainly produced by farming practices, will have to drop significantly.

Te NFU said it would be “nigh on impossible” for farming to make the cuts without a massive reduction in livestock farming – which produces methane and cultivating the land – which produces nitrous oxide.

Dr Jonathan Scurlock, chief adviser on renewable energy and climate change at the National Farmers’ Union, explained that ploughing the soil and using fertiliser produces large amounts of nitrous oxide.

He said Britain would have to stop producing its own food in order to meet the targets and rely on imports instead, which will just mean the carbon emissions are produced elsewhere in the world.” “Climate change targets could end farming as we know it – NFU“

“House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer (D-Md.) told CNSNews.com on Wednesday that restoring the ban on new offshore oil drilling leases “will be a top priority for discussion next year” if the Democrats retain control of Congress.” “Democrat Leader: Restoring Offshore Drilling Ban a ‘Top Priority’ for Next Year“

“The protective bubble around the sun that helps to shield the Earth from harmful interstellar radiation is shrinking and getting weaker, NASA scientists have discovered.

New data from the Ulysses deep-space probe show that the heliosphere, the protective shield of energy that surrounds our solar system, has weakened by 25 per cent over the past decade and is now at it lowest level since the space race began 50 years ago. …

If the heliosphere continues to weaken, it is feared intergalactic cosmic radiation reaching Earth will increase, disrupting electrical equipment, damaging satellites and potentially harming life.” “Protective shield of the sun is shrinking“

More cosmic rays reaching Earth, more low clouds, more albedo, more cooling.